Sunday, February 8, 2015

#1 The AI Revolution: Our Immortality or Extinction?

(I thought it best to agree on a common vocabulary before trying to tackle this question…Rafael)
From: http://waitbutwhy.com/2015/01/artificial-intelligence-revolution-1.html?utm_source=List&utm_campaign=867044c6bb-WBW+%28MailChimp%29&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_5b568bad0b-867044c6bb-50855317

There are many different types or forms of AI since AI is a broad concept, the critical categories we need to think about are based on an AI’s caliber. There are three major AI caliber categories:

·       AI Caliber 1) Artificial Narrow Intelligence (ANI): Sometimes referred to as Weak AI, Artificial Narrow Intelligence is AI that specializes in one area. There’s AI that can beat the world chess champion in chess, but that’s the only thing it does. Ask it to figure out a better way to store data on a hard drive, and it’ll look at you blankly.
·       AI Caliber 2) Artificial General Intelligence (AGI): Sometimes referred to as Strong AI, or Human-Level AI, Artificial General Intelligence refers to a computer that is as smart as a human across the board—a machine that can perform any intellectual task that a human being can. Creating an AGI is a much harder task than creating an ANI, and we’re yet to do it. Professor Linda Gottfredson describes intelligence as “a very general mental capability that, among other things, involves the ability to reason, plan, solve problems, think abstractly, comprehend complex ideas, learn quickly, and learn from experience.” An AGI would be able to do all of those things as easily as you can.
·       AI Caliber 3) Artificial Superintelligence (ASI): Oxford philosopher and leading AI thinker Nick Bostrom defines superintelligence as “an intellect that is much smarter than the best human brains in practically every field, including scientific creativity, general wisdom and social skills.” Artificial Superintelligence ranges from a computer that’s just a little smarter than a human to one that’s trillions of times smarter—across the board. ASI is the reason the topic of AI is such a spicy meatball and why the words immortality and extinction will both appear in these posts multiple times.

As of now, humans have conquered the lowest caliber of AI—ANI—in many ways, and it’s everywhere. 

The AI Revolution is the road from ANI, through AGI, to ASI—a road we may or may not survive but that, either way, will change everything.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

The jump from AGI to ASI may be much easier than the jump from ANI to AGI. It seems to me that once human intelligence is automated it is just a mater of speed and capacity to make that human intelligence into a 'super human' intelligence.

For example, if you met someone who could tell you what Winston Churchill said or wrote on US politics, and could beat you in chess, you would consider him to be very intelligent, especially if he could drive a car. But if he could also tell you what anyone in the world wrote about any topic at all and could beat everyone at chess (playing simultaneously) then you would consider him to be super intelligent.

Yet the difference between the two individuals is only quantitative. And it is achievable by an extrapolation of the present expansion of computing power, ala Moore's Law.

The jump from ANI to AGI, on the other hand, involves definition of human intelligence, and the creation of circuits that can do mimmick it. Not easy at all. We are not not yet able to define human intelligence, much less reproduce it in solid state.